Walmart (WMT) price forecast

Walmart is trading at 114.22. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 112.10 and 116.42— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Walmart forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Walmart?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Walmart

The model sees Walmart, currently around 114, drifting modestly higher across all horizons. Over one week it projects about 115 (a 0.48% gain) with a 10th-to-90th percentile band of roughly 110 to 120 and a 55.1% chance of rising. The one-month view centers near 116 (up 1.9%, 62.7% up), and the one-year projection reaches about 145 (up 26.68%, 83.4% up), spanning a wide 106 to 198. Note the reliability labels fall from moderate to low to very low as the horizon lengthens. Annualised volatility of 24.26% explains the widening ranges, while trailing-month momentum is slightly negative at -3.49%. Crucially, the ML model fails to beat its naive baseline at every horizon: 51.7% versus 53.3% at one day, 52.3% versus 55.1% at one week, and 60.9% versus 62.6% at 30 days. That edge is absent, so treat these projections with skepticism. A volatility spike, a momentum reversal, or realized moves outside the stated percentile bands would undermine this outlook.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Walmart and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.