Amazon (AMZN) price forecast

Amazon is trading at 231.39. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 227.14 and 235.00— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing lower at 55%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Amazon forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Amazon?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Amazon

The model sees AMZN near 232.11 drifting modestly higher. Over one week it expects about 232.68 (+0.25%), with a 58% chance of gains and a P10–P90 range of roughly 219.21 to 247.02. The one-month view centers on 234.08 (+0.85%, 59% up, range 207.57 to 264.34), and the one-year figure is 260 (+12.16%, 64% up, range 170 to 398). Reliability is tagged moderate for a week, low for a month, and very low for a year. The wide ranges reflect 32.86% annualised volatility, while trailing-month change is essentially flat at -0.19%, so momentum is muted. Bluntly, the ML model shows no measurable edge: it fails to beat the naive baseline at every horizon (51.7% vs 52.4% at one day, 53.6% vs 54.3% at one week, and a tie at 59.8% for one month). Because confidence is thin and the year-ahead band is enormous, a volatility spike or a sharp move beyond these ranges would quickly invalidate this outlook.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Amazon and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.