Microsoft (MSFT) price forecast

Microsoft is trading at 398.26. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 391.61 and 406.32— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing higher at 54%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Microsoft forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Microsoft?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Microsoft

From a current price of about 398, the model expects near-flat movement over shorter windows: roughly 398 in one week (−0.11%) and 396 in one month (−0.6%), drifting toward 375 over one year (−5.95%). Confidence is limited and fades with time — one-week reliability is moderate, one-month low, one-year very low. Probability of an increase is 64.7% at one week, 60.1% at one month and 40.9% at one year. Ranges widen sharply, from roughly 379–417 in a week to 266–527 over a year. Annualised volatility of 26.46% explains those broadening bands, while a trailing-month gain of 10.28% signals recent upward momentum. Bluntly, the ML model shows no measurable edge over the naive baseline at any horizon: accuracy is 53.6% versus 53.3% at one day, and identical at 58.0% (7 days) and 59.7% (30 days). The wide ranges and low reliability mean actual outcomes could easily fall outside expectations, and the absence of any modelled edge undercuts confidence in the projected direction.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Microsoft and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.