NVIDIA (NVDA) price forecast

NVIDIA is trading at 197.53. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 193.23 and 202.21— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

NVIDIA forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on NVIDIA?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about NVIDIA

The model expects modest gains for NVDA from its current 206.84. Over one week it projects about 208 (+0.56%), with a 10th-to-90th-percentile range of roughly 191 to 227 and a 59.8% chance of finishing higher. The one-month view centers near 211 (+2.07%, 63.7% up, range 178 to 252), and the one-year view near 270 (+30.4%, 71.1% up, range 146 to 498). Note reliability is flagged moderate, low, and very low as the horizon lengthens. The wide ranges reflect high annualised volatility of 47.4%, and recent momentum is mildly positive with a trailing-month change of +4.36%. Bluntly, the ML model shows no measurable edge: at every horizon it fails to beat the naive baseline — 53.5% vs 54.2% at one day, 58.0% vs 58.3% at one week, and 58.6% vs 64.7% at one month. This outlook could break down given the sizable volatility, which makes the outer ranges plausible, and the low-to-very-low reliability ratings, particularly for the longer horizons where the wide bands undercut confidence.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for NVIDIA and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.