Tesla (TSLA) price forecast

Tesla is trading at 307.54. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 293.38 and 317.87— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing lower at 59%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Tesla forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Tesla?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Tesla

From a current price of about 308, the model expects only marginal near-term movement: roughly 308 in one week (up 0.26%, prob-up 52.5%, moderate reliability) and about 310 in one month (up 0.75%, prob-up 49.9%, low reliability). The one-year expected price is around 345 (up 12.13%, prob-up 57.4%), but reliability is very low and the range is enormous, spanning roughly 157 to 761. The wide ranges reflect an annualised volatility of 61.26%, and momentum has been negative, with the trailing month down 16.23%. Crucially, the ML model shows no measurable edge: at the 1-, 7-, and 30-day horizons its accuracy (50.7%, 51.3%, 49.5%) trails the naive baseline (52.4%, 52.1%, 53.9%) every time. In other words, the model does not currently outperform a simple benchmark. High volatility means any sharp price swing could quickly push outcomes outside these projected bands, and the low-to-very-low reliability ratings, especially over longer horizons, mean the estimates should be treated as loose guides rather than firm expectations.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Tesla and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.