Netflix (NFLX) price forecast

Netflix is trading at 73.21. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 71.01 and 75.33— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Netflix forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Netflix?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Netflix

From a current price of 70.09, the model projects near-flat outcomes across all horizons. Over one week it expects roughly 70.14 (+0.08%), with a 10th-to-90th percentile band of about 65.95 to 74.61 and a 55.4% chance of an upward move. The one-month expected price is around 70.18 (+0.12%), ranging 61.99 to 79.57, prob-up 62.7%. The one-year figure is 72.15 (+2.93%), but with a very wide band of 46.58 to 111.87. Reliability is tagged moderate, low, and very low respectively. The wide ranges reflect 33.93% annualised volatility, while trailing-month momentum is negative at −5.4%. Critically, the ML model shows no measurable edge over a naive baseline: at 1 day it matches (50.8% vs 50.8%), and at 7 and 30 days it trails (51.7% vs 52.9%, 54.0% vs 56.6%). Take these projections skeptically. Elevated volatility, further momentum shifts, or the model's persistent underperformance versus baseline could all invalidate this already low-confidence outlook.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Netflix and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.