McDonald's (MCD) price forecast

McDonald's is trading at 271.52. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 267.63 and 275.59— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

McDonald's forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on McDonald's?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about McDonald's

The model sees MCD at roughly 272 today drifting only marginally higher across all horizons. Over one week it expects about 272 (a 0.09% move) with a 59.7% chance of finishing up and a 263 to 281 range. The one-month view is similar at 272 (0.28%, 60.4% up), while the one-year projection reaches about 283 (4.24%, 58.9% up) but spans a wide 222 to 361 band. Reliability is flagged moderate, low, and very low respectively. Modest projected returns fit the stock's 18.8% annualised volatility and a soft 2.32% trailing-month change. The ML model's edge is thin to absent: at one day it trails the naive baseline (51.2% vs 51.8%), at one week it barely matches it (55.6% vs 55.4%), and only at 30 days does it edge ahead (57.2% vs 56.4%). Treat these forecasts with corresponding skepticism. A volatility spike, a sharper reversal in momentum, or a move beyond the stated ranges would undermine this outlook, as would the low reliability at longer horizons.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for McDonald's and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.