JPMorgan Chase (JPM) price forecast

JPMorgan Chase is trading at 344.71. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 340.96 and 349.37— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing higher at 55%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

JPMorgan Chase forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on JPMorgan Chase?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about JPMorgan Chase

The model expects modest gains for JPM from its current 344.71. Over one week it projects 346.68 (+0.57%, prob_up 58.6%), with a p10–p90 band of roughly 331 to 363. The one-month view is 352.54 (+2.27%, prob_up 62.2%), spanning about 321 to 387. The one-year projection is 456 (+32.31%, prob_up 86.5%), but with a very wide range from roughly 330 to 632. Note the reliability labels: moderate, low, and very low respectively. The stock carries 25.21% annualised volatility and has risen 6.77% over the trailing month, which supports the upward tilt but also explains the widening ranges at longer horizons. Bluntly, the ML model shows no measurable edge: at 1, 7, and 30 days its accuracy (51%, 55.8%, 56.4%) trails the naive baseline (53.1%, 57.7%, 61.6%) every time. A break in recent momentum, a volatility spike, or any shift beyond the modelled p10–p90 bands would undermine this outlook, and the low reliability ratings warrant caution.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for JPMorgan Chase and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.