Exxon Mobil (XOM) price forecast

Exxon Mobil is trading at 156.75. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 154.64 and 160.16— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing higher at 61%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Exxon Mobil forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Exxon Mobil?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Exxon Mobil

From a current price of 157, the model leans mildly positive across all horizons. Over one week it expects roughly 157 (a 0.36% move) with a 59.3% chance of finishing higher and a p10–p90 band of about 150 to 165. The one-month view centres near 159 (1.39%, 66.1% up), spanning 145 to 174. The one-year projection reaches about 187 (19.26%, 76% up), but with a very wide 136 to 257 range. Reliability is flagged moderate, low, and very low respectively. The stock carries 24.71% annualised volatility and has climbed 12.52% over the trailing month, which helps explain the upward tilt and the widening ranges at longer horizons. Bluntly, the ML model shows no measurable edge: at 1, 7, and 30 days its accuracy (50.4%, 53.7%, 57.1%) matches or trails the naive baseline (51.8%, 53.7%, 57.6%). A shift in realised volatility or a reversal of the recent momentum would undermine these projections, particularly the loosely reliable longer horizons.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Exxon Mobil and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.