Eli Lilly (LLY) price forecast

Eli Lilly is trading at 1,221. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 1,197 and 1,245— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Eli Lilly forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Eli Lilly?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Eli Lilly

The model sees modest upside for LLY from its current 1,221. Over one week it expects roughly 1,225 (+0.35%, prob up 58.4%), with a p10–p90 band of 1,142 to 1,314. One month projects about 1,236 (+1.23%, prob up 65.9%), ranging 1,073 to 1,425. The one-year figure is 1,436 (+17.67%, prob up 66.5%) but spans a very wide 873 to 2,365. Reliability falls from moderate to low to very low across these horizons. That widening reflects an annualised volatility of 38.57%, which balloons the outer ranges over time. Recent momentum is mildly positive, with a trailing-month change of +6.19%. Critically, the ML model beats no naive baseline at any horizon: accuracy trails at 1 day (53.2% vs 54.0%), 7 days (56.2% vs 56.8%), and 30 days (60.1% vs 60.3%). It shows no measurable edge. A volatility shift beyond the 38.57% assumption, or a break in the +6.19% momentum, would undercut these projections, especially the low-reliability longer horizons.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Eli Lilly and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.