Chevron (CVX) price forecast

Chevron is trading at 191.86. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 189.61 and 195.58— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing higher at 62%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Chevron forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Chevron?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Chevron

The model sees modest upside for CVX from its current 191.86. Over one week it expects roughly 192.40 (+0.28%), with a 10th-to-90th percentile band of 184.11 to 201.08 and a 56.1% chance of finishing higher. The one-month expectation is 193.86 (+1.04%, 63.7% up), and the one-year figure is 219.41 (+14.36%, 70.9% up), spanning 160.49 to 300.19. Confidence tags fall from moderate to low to very low as the horizon lengthens. Behind this sits annualised volatility of 24.25% and a strong trailing-month gain of 10.31%. Crucially, the ML model does not beat a naive baseline at any measured horizon: 52.9% vs 53.4% at one day, 54.3% vs 55.0% at one week, and 57.7% vs 57.5% at one month — essentially a coin toss with no reliable edge. Widening percentile ranges and the low-reliability labels mean any volatility shift, a reversal of recent momentum, or the model's continued failure to outperform the baseline could invalidate this outlook.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Chevron and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other stock forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.