S&P 500 (^GSPC) price forecast
S&P 500 is trading at 7,377. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 7,272 and 7,475— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.
Price history & forecast cone — 10th–90th percentile of 20,000 simulated futures
S&P 500 forecast by timeframe
| Timeframe | Likely range | Midpoint | Odds higher |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Minutes | 7,364 – 7,389 | 7,377 | 50% |
| 15 Minutes | 7,355 – 7,397 | 7,377 | 50% |
| 1 Hour | 7,324 – 7,426 | 7,377 | 50% |
| 4 Hours | 7,272 – 7,475 | 7,378 | 51% |
| 30 Minutes | Available on Pro → | ||
| 1 Day | Available on Pro → | ||
| 1 Week | Available on Pro → | ||
| 1 Month | Available on Pro → | ||
| 6 Months | Available on Pro → | ||
| 1 Year | Available on Pro → | ||
| 5 Years | Available on Pro → | ||
Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.
How accurate has this model been on S&P 500?
Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.
| Horizon | Directional accuracy | Baseline | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | 53.3% | 54.4% | -1.1% | no edge |
| 7-day | 59.2% | 59.8% | -0.6% | no edge |
| 30-day | 59.4% | 66.9% | -7.5% | no edge |
Backtested on 1910unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.
What the model is saying about S&P 500
Over the next week the model puts the odds of ^GSPC rising at 63%, with a likely range of 7,000–7,716 around an expected 7,413. Price has moved -5.0% over the trailing month. A year out, the median simulated path implies +10.7%, but the 10–90% band spans 6,006–9,848 — at 36% annualised volatility, the range matters more than the midpoint. In walk-forward backtests the ML classifier shows no reliable edge over a naive baseline on this asset, so treat short-term direction as roughly a coin toss and rely on the ranges. These are probabilistic estimates from historical prices only — a volatility regime change, or news the model cannot see, would invalidate them. Not financial advice.
How to read this forecast
We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for S&P 500 and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.
More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.
See the live S&P 500 forecast
Streaming prices, an interactive cone across every timeframe, and the full honesty scorecard.
Open S&P 500 in Coneview →Other index forecasts
Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.