Nikkei 225 (^N225) price forecast
Nikkei 225 is trading at 62,365. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 60,937 and 63,474— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing lower at 57%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.
Price history & forecast cone — 10th–90th percentile of 20,000 simulated futures
Nikkei 225 forecast by timeframe
| Timeframe | Likely range | Midpoint | Odds higher |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Minutes | 62,182 – 62,522 | 62,352 | 46% |
| 15 Minutes | 62,032 – 62,621 | 62,325 | 43% |
| 1 Hour | 61,690 – 62,960 | 62,322 | 47% |
| 4 Hours | 60,937 – 63,474 | 62,193 | 43% |
| 30 Minutes | Available on Pro → | ||
| 1 Day | Available on Pro → | ||
| 1 Week | Available on Pro → | ||
| 1 Month | Available on Pro → | ||
| 6 Months | Available on Pro → | ||
| 1 Year | Available on Pro → | ||
| 5 Years | Available on Pro → | ||
Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.
How accurate has this model been on Nikkei 225?
Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.
| Horizon | Directional accuracy | Baseline | Edge | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-day | 53.5% | 53.5% | -0.1% | no edge |
| 7-day | 56.9% | 56.9% | +0.1% | no edge |
| 30-day | 61.5% | 61.3% | +0.1% | no edge |
Backtested on 1730unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.
What the model is saying about Nikkei 225
The model expects modest gains for the ^N225 across all horizons from its current level near 62,365. Over one week it projects about 62,676 (+0.5%, 60.3% chance of a rise), with a plausible band of roughly 59,498 to 66,035. The one-month view centres on 63,577 (+1.94%, 63.4% up), and the one-year figure is 79,503 (+27.48%, 80.1% up). Confidence tags fall from moderate to low to very low as the horizon lengthens. Those ranges are wide because annualised volatility sits at 28.68%, and recent momentum is negative, with the trailing month down 6.13%. Crucially, the ML model shows no measurable edge over a naive baseline at any horizon: accuracy is 53.5% versus 53.5% at one day, 56.9% versus 56.9% at seven days, and 61.5% versus 61.3% at 30 days. Treat the directional signal as essentially coin-flip-plus. A volatility spike, a shift in the negative momentum trend, or the low-reliability longer horizons drifting further would undermine this outlook.
How to read this forecast
We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Nikkei 225 and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.
More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.
See the live Nikkei 225 forecast
Streaming prices, an interactive cone across every timeframe, and the full honesty scorecard.
Open Nikkei 225 in Coneview →Other index forecasts
Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.