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Nikkei 225 (^N225) price forecast

Nikkei 225 is trading at 62,365. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 60,937 and 63,474— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing lower at 57%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Price history & forecast cone — 10th–90th percentile of 20,000 simulated futures

65,91164,40262,89361,384NOW+4H · 8:41 PMP90 63,474 · 90th pctP10 60,937 · 10th pct

Nikkei 225 forecast by timeframe

TimeframeLikely rangeMidpointOdds higher
5 Minutes62,18262,52262,35246%
15 Minutes62,03262,62162,32543%
1 Hour61,69062,96062,32247%
4 Hours60,93763,47462,19343%
30 MinutesAvailable on Pro →
1 DayAvailable on Pro →
1 WeekAvailable on Pro →
1 MonthAvailable on Pro →
6 MonthsAvailable on Pro →
1 YearAvailable on Pro →
5 YearsAvailable on Pro →

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Nikkei 225?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

HorizonDirectional accuracyBaselineEdgeVerdict
1-day53.5%53.5%-0.1%no edge
7-day56.9%56.9%+0.1%no edge
30-day61.5%61.3%+0.1%no edge

Backtested on 1730unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Nikkei 225

The model expects modest gains for the ^N225 across all horizons from its current level near 62,365. Over one week it projects about 62,676 (+0.5%, 60.3% chance of a rise), with a plausible band of roughly 59,498 to 66,035. The one-month view centres on 63,577 (+1.94%, 63.4% up), and the one-year figure is 79,503 (+27.48%, 80.1% up). Confidence tags fall from moderate to low to very low as the horizon lengthens. Those ranges are wide because annualised volatility sits at 28.68%, and recent momentum is negative, with the trailing month down 6.13%. Crucially, the ML model shows no measurable edge over a naive baseline at any horizon: accuracy is 53.5% versus 53.5% at one day, 56.9% versus 56.9% at seven days, and 61.5% versus 61.3% at 30 days. Treat the directional signal as essentially coin-flip-plus. A volatility spike, a shift in the negative momentum trend, or the low-reliability longer horizons drifting further would undermine this outlook.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Nikkei 225 and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

See the live Nikkei 225 forecast

Streaming prices, an interactive cone across every timeframe, and the full honesty scorecard.

Open Nikkei 225 in Coneview →

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Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.