Nasdaq 100 (^NDX) price forecast

Nasdaq 100 is trading at 27,871. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 27,463 and 28,208— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing lower at 55%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Nasdaq 100 forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Nasdaq 100?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Nasdaq 100

The model sees the ^NDX index near 28,128 drifting modestly higher across all horizons. Over one week it expects about 28,233 (+0.37%, prob_up 60.3%), within a p10–p90 band of roughly 27,116 to 29,399. The one-month view is 28,532 (+1.43%, prob_up 67.7%), and the one-year projection is 33,679 (+19.73%, prob_up 78.9%). Reliability is flagged as moderate at one week and deteriorates to low and very low further out. The reasons for caution are clear. Annualised volatility sits at 22.24%, and trailing-month momentum is negative at -3.04%, which widens the longer-horizon ranges considerably. Critically, the ML model shows no measurable edge over a naive baseline at any horizon: accuracy of 56.4% versus 56.5% (1 day), 59.8% versus 59.8% (7 days), and 65.8% versus 65.9% (30 days). Bluntly, it is not beating the coin-flip benchmark. A shift in realised volatility, a reversal of the recent negative momentum, or a break beyond the stated ranges would undermine this outlook, particularly given the very low reliability at longer horizons.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Nasdaq 100 and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other index forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.