FTSE 100 (^FTSE) price forecast

FTSE 100 is trading at 10,871. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 10,812 and 10,945— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing higher at 56%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

FTSE 100 forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on FTSE 100?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1920unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about FTSE 100

The model sees the ^FTSE index at roughly 10,871 drifting modestly higher. Over one week it expects about 10,900 (+0.26%), with a 10th-to-90th percentile band of 10,664 to 11,142 and a 55.9% chance of finishing up; reliability here is moderate. The one-month view centres on 10,985 (+1.05%), ranging 10,511 to 11,486, with a 63.6% up-probability but low reliability. The one-year projection of 12,379 (+13.87%) carries an 85.9% up-probability across a wide 10,596–14,467 band, but reliability is very low. The backdrop is contained volatility of 12.06% annualised and positive trailing-month momentum of +2.43%, which supports the mild upward tilt. Bluntly, though, the machine-learning model shows no measurable edge: at 1, 7 and 30 days its accuracy (53.3%, 52.2%, 57.2%) trails the naive baseline (53.9%, 56.6%, 60.1%) at every horizon. A jump in realised volatility beyond the assumed 12.06%, a reversal of the recent momentum, or outcomes drifting toward the wide percentile bands—especially over the low-reliability longer horizons—would undermine this outlook.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for FTSE 100 and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other index forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.