CAC 40 (^FCHI) price forecast

CAC 40 is trading at 8,459. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 8,403 and 8,518— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

CAC 40 forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on CAC 40?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1520unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about CAC 40

The model sees the CAC 40 (^FCHI), currently near 8,459, drifting modestly higher. Over one week it projects 8,470 (+0.14%, prob_up 55.5%, moderate reliability), with a p10–p90 range of roughly 8,238 to 8,710. The one-month view is 8,500 (+0.49%, prob_up 53.6%, low reliability), and the one-year view is 9,027 (+6.72%, prob_up 66.7%), though that carries very low reliability and a wide band from about 7,410 to 11,002. Annualised volatility of 15.3% and a flat trailing month (+0.05%) explain the muted near-term outlook and the widening ranges over longer horizons. Bluntly, the ML model shows no measurable edge: at one day it scores 51.5% versus a 52.0% baseline, at seven days it merely matches (57.8% each), and at 30 days it trails (53.0% vs 55.5%). So confidence in the directional signal is limited. This outlook could be undercut by a volatility spike beyond the assumed 15.3%, a decisive break from the recent flat momentum, or the low-reliability longer horizons simply not materialising.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for CAC 40 and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other index forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.