Natural Gas Futures (NG=F) price forecast

Natural Gas Futures is trading at 2.68. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 2.64 and 2.71— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing lower at 55%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Natural Gas Futures forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Natural Gas Futures?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1835unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Natural Gas Futures

The model sees natural gas near its current 2.68 across all horizons, with only marginal expected moves: about 2.69 in one week, 2.70 in one month, and 3.03 over a year (a 12.98% expected return). Confidence is thin and fades with time — up-probabilities of 50.1%, 54.3%, and 55.6% are barely above a coin flip, and reliability drops from "moderate" to "low" to "very low." Ranges balloon accordingly: the one-year 10th-to-90th percentile spans 0.97 to 9.50. Those wide bands reflect an annualised volatility of 88.46% and a trailing-month change of -16.81%. Bluntly, the ML model shows no measurable edge: at 1, 7, and 30 days its accuracy (50.0%, 50.1%, 49.3%) trails the naive baseline (50.1%, 51.4%, 51.1%) every time. It is not beating a simple guess. Given the extreme volatility and near-random signal, any sharp move in either direction would quickly render this near-flat, low-conviction outlook obsolete.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Natural Gas Futures and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other commodity forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.