Crude Oil Futures (CL=F) price forecast

Crude Oil Futures is trading at 82.22. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 80.78 and 83.99— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing higher at 55%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Crude Oil Futures forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Crude Oil Futures?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1780unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Crude Oil Futures

The model sees crude oil (CL=F) near 82.22 drifting only marginally higher across all horizons. Over one week it expects roughly 82.30 (a 0.1% move) with a 57.2% chance of finishing up and a range of about 76 to 89. The one-month view centers near 82.35 (up 0.15%, 55.9% up) spanning roughly 70 to 97. The one-year expected price is about 85.31 (up 3.75%, 53.3% up) with a very wide 48 to 152 band. Reliability is rated moderate at one week and falls to very low at one year. Those wide ranges reflect steep 44.83% annualised volatility, even after a strong 17.84% trailing-month gain. On measurable edge, the ML model does not beat its naive baseline at 1 day (52.1% vs 52.8%) or 7 days (53.0% vs 53.4%); it only narrowly edges it at 30 days (53.1% vs 51.5%). Given the high volatility and near-even up-probabilities, sustained momentum shifts or a break outside these ranges would quickly invalidate this near-flat outlook.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Crude Oil Futures and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other commodity forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.