USD/INR (USDINR=X) price forecast

USD/INR is trading at 95.68. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 95.52 and 95.85— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

USD/INR forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on USD/INR?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 2000unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about USD/INR

The model sees USDINR=X drifting modestly higher from its current 95.68. Over one week it projects about 95.80 (a 0.13% move), with a 10th-to-90th percentile band of roughly 94.84 to 96.78 and a 54.9% chance of rising. The one-month view centres near 96.17 (0.52%, 55% up), and the one-year projection reaches about 102 (6.84%, 87.8% up), spanning 95.04 to 110. Reliability is flagged moderate at one week, low at one month, and very low at one year. The path reflects low annualised volatility of 5.65% and slight positive momentum, with the trailing month up 0.89%. On edge, be blunt: the model only outperforms its naive baseline at the one-day horizon (53.4% versus 51.2%). At seven and thirty days it trails the baseline (52.9% versus 56.0%, and 53.2% versus 57.2%), so the near-term forecasts carry little demonstrated skill. Rising volatility, a momentum reversal, or the wide longer-horizon ranges playing out toward their lower bound would undercut this drift-higher outlook.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for USD/INR and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other currency forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.