EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) price forecast

EUR/USD is trading at 1.14. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 1.14 and 1.14— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

EUR/USD forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on EUR/USD?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 2000unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about EUR/USD

The model sees EURUSD hovering near its current 1.14, with only marginal drift higher. Over one week it expects roughly 1.14 (a 0.04% move, prob_up 51.7%, ranging 1.13 to 1.16), over one month about 1.14 (0.14%, prob_up 45.4%), and over one year around 1.16 (2.08%, prob_up 61.1%). Confidence fades fast: reliability is moderate at one week, low at one month and very low at one year, with the yearly band spanning 1.06 to 1.28. The backdrop is calm — annualised volatility of 7.36% and a trailing-month change of just 0.4% — which explains the tight near-term ranges. Bluntly, the ML model shows no measurable edge: at 1, 7 and 30 days its accuracy (49.1%, 50.2%, 51.5%) trails the naive baseline (51.1%, 50.7%, 52.1%) every time. This outlook could break down if volatility rises beyond the 7.36% assumption or if realised moves push outside the stated p10–p90 ranges, particularly given the very low longer-horizon reliability.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for EUR/USD and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other currency forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.