EUR/USD (EURUSD=X) price forecast

EUR/USD is trading at 1.16. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 1.16 and 1.16— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

EUR/USD forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on EUR/USD?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 2000unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about EUR/USD

Over the next week the model puts the odds of EURUSD=X rising at 50%, with a likely range of 1.15–1.17 around an expected 1.16. Price has moved +0.7% over the trailing month. A year out, the median simulated path implies -0.4%, but the 10–90% band spans 1.07–1.25 — at 5% annualised volatility, the range matters more than the midpoint. In walk-forward backtests the ML classifier shows no reliable edge over a naive baseline on this asset, so treat short-term direction as roughly a coin toss and rely on the ranges. Federal Reserve interest rate decision lands on 2026-09-16 — across its last 21 of these it has moved 0.4% on the day, about 1.4x a normal one. The ranges above already widen to account for it. These are probabilistic estimates from historical prices only — a volatility regime change, or news the model cannot see, would invalidate them. Not financial advice.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for EUR/USD and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other currency forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.