US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) price forecast

US Dollar Index is trading at 100.66. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 100.52 and 100.81— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The odds of finishing higher are near a coin toss, so the model claims no directional signal here — the range is the whole forecast. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

US Dollar Index forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on US Dollar Index?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 1925unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about US Dollar Index

The model sees the US Dollar Index essentially flat to modestly lower from its current 100.66. Over one week it projects 100.64 (-0.03%), with a 10th-to-90th percentile band of 99.41 to 101.88 and a near-even 51.5% chance of an uptick. The one-month view is 100.51 (-0.15%, 98.06 to 103.05, 49.4% up), and the one-year view drifts to 99.05 (-1.61%, 90.66 to 108.23, 40.7% up). Confidence weakens sharply with horizon, rated moderate, low, and very low respectively. Annualised volatility is 6.86% and the trailing month change is essentially nil at -0.05%, consistent with the muted drift. On measurable edge, the model is unconvincing: at one day it barely clears the baseline (50.6% vs 50.1%), and at one week it actually trails (47.5% vs 50.3%). Only the 30-day horizon shows a clearer gap (54.5% vs 51.2%). A move outside the stated percentile bands, or a volatility shift away from 6.86%, would undercut this outlook.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for US Dollar Index and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other currency forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.