Ethereum (ETH-USD) price forecast

Ethereum is trading at 1,919. Over the next 4 hours our simulation puts it between 1,899 and 1,942— that's the 10th-to-90th percentile of 20,000 modelled outcomes, so roughly four times in five it should land inside that band. The model puts the odds of finishing higher at 53%. These are probabilities, not predictions of certainty, and the backtest below shows exactly how often the model has been right.

Ethereum forecast by timeframe

Intraday horizons are free. Longer horizons — 1 day through 5 years — are part of Pro.

How accurate has this model been on Ethereum?

Every forecast site claims accuracy. Here is ours, measured by walk-forward backtest on data the model never saw during training. Where it has no edge over a naive baseline, we say so.

Backtested on 2485unseen samples. "No edge" means the model was no better than assuming the recent trend continues — an honest result, and a common one.

What the model is saying about Ethereum

The model sees ETH-USD near its current 1,919 across all horizons. Over one week it expects roughly 1,920 (a 0.09% move), with a 54.3% chance of finishing higher and a 10th-to-90th-percentile band of about 1,699 to 2,172; reliability is moderate. The one-month view is essentially flat at 1,919 (60.1% up) with a wider 1,494 to 2,471 band but low reliability. The one-year expectation of 1,974 (2.88%, 51.8% up) spans 813 to 4,805 and carries very low reliability. The wide ranges reflect an annualised volatility of 68.82%, even as trailing-month momentum sits at +9.36%. Bluntly, the ML model shows no measurable edge: it fails to beat the naive baseline at every horizon, with accuracy of 49.3% versus 51.5% at one day, 50.1% versus 51.8% at one week, and 46.2% versus 52.5% at one month. Given that high volatility and the model's lack of edge, sharp price swings, momentum reversals, or the reliability caveats noted above could quickly render these flat expectations obsolete.

How to read this forecast

We don't publish a single price target, because nobody can know one. Instead the engine runs 20,000 simulated futures for Ethereum and reports the band containing the middle 80% of them — the 10th to 90th percentile. A wide band means genuine uncertainty; a narrow one means the recent range has been calm. The odds higher figure is a calibrated probability: when we say 60%, outcomes of that kind should finish higher about 60 times in 100. Near 50% there is no directional signal at all, and the range itself is the entire forecast.

More depth: what a forecast cone is, how to read a P10–P90 range, and what makes a probability trustworthy. Our public accuracy scorecard shows where the model has an edge — and where it has none.

Other crypto forecasts

Forecasts are probabilistic estimates from historical price data, not financial advice. Short-horizon direction has only a small measurable edge; long-horizon numbers reflect drift plus widening uncertainty and should be read as ranges, not targets. Figures update hourly. Coneview provides statistical market information, not financial advice.